“Avatar: The Way of Water” has been very successful since its premiere last week.
Just 5 days after its release in around 7 countries, the trajectory of James Cameron’s movie is quite clear. Certainly, there are caveats to this statement, but it is clear overall. We now have sufficient information to speculate on where it will fall on the list of domestic releases in 2022.
With its current total of NZ$1164 million, “Top Gun: Maverick” is poised to win the American box office title in 2022. But even so, once all grosses are tallied up, the Tom Cruise film, which has a worldwide total worth of NZ$2 billion, is expected to be left behind by “The Way of Water.”
It is quite likely that the latter will surpass the domestic and global total earned by “Maverick,” the film that now holds the record for being the most successful in that category.
As of this past Tuesday, “The Way of Water” has brought in NZ$268 million in domestic revenue and NZ$884 million internationally. In comparison to similar films that were released before the Christmas weekend, such as “The Force Awakens” and “Spider-Man: No Way Home,“ there are a few optimistic indications that its trajectory may improve in the near future. Specifically, its increase of 13% from Monday to Tuesday is the greatest sign we have had so far, reflecting the improved performance in days to come.
Weekends are often sufficient to provide a reasonable estimate of the total domestic revenue. (Because of delayed openings and significant disparities across countries, dealing with foreign releases is not as straightforward as the domestic releases). The book “The Way of Water” takes a somewhat different approach.
Unanswered questions include whether or not its length and a possibly higher viewing interest among family-oriented audiences will impact the attendance on December 25 and after, and whether or not repeat viewing will add to an increase that is higher than usual. In addition, it is unclear how much would the word-of-mouth contribute to a higher than usual increase in the movie’s business.
With Christmas yet to come, based on the typically dependable precedents of top movies, Cameron’s sequel seems to be heading for a domestic total of NZ$748 million and a global total of NZ$2.2 billion. Since then, there has been a little improvement, but as seasoned watchers are aware, even slight improvements in the early days are crucial. In addition to that, there will be a record-low number of new releases playing. Watch these Christmas movies if you’re in the mood to watch romance-filled movies this christmas.
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However, various factors contribute to the improved prognosis. For starters, the fan base for this doesn’t have the same fervor that makes viewing it first a priority. The 192-minute running length makes it a more-than-usual time commitment, but one that is easier to make over the Christmas season.
That commitment, along with the increased charges for premium shows, may have caused some viewers to be on the fence. In addition, the World Cup finals during the opening weekend acted as a competition to those shows too, especially for overseas spectators. Repeat viewing is still up in the air.
Guidelines are used to forecast the Christmas-New Year’s timeframe. Grosses will not match those of the first weekend and in the coming weekend, with Christmas Eve on Saturday, might see a 50% reduction. However, the other days of the week will recover, so the total week may shrink only by a third.
According to industry insiders, the worst-case situation is a NZ$755 million domestic total. Most estimates range between NZ$795 and NZ$835 million, with a potential of exceeding NZ$954 million. In contrast, “No Way Home” grossed $814 million.
International predictions are less precise since various markets respond differently. The opportunity for progress is greatest in China, where this has earned NZ$106 million so far (hampered by continuing COVID-19 concerns). Expect it to exceed NZ$2.4 billion, and “Maverick” to cost between NZ$2.5 billion and NZ$3 billion. (“No Way Home” cost little more than NZ$3 billion).
Nobody working in the film industry is anticipating that “Maverick” would earn more money domestically than its predecessor. Fans who are hoping for far higher returns are quick to make comparisons to “Titanic’s” gigantic 22 first-weekend multiple and “Avatar’s” 10 times.
The situation is different now than it was before. When they first opened, both of those pictures were plagued with far more severe seating shortages than “The Way of Water.” The current movie is a sequel, which nearly invariably results in a higher opening weekend take than the first picture in the series making NZ$180 million in its first weekend.
“Avatar” made roughly NZ$1.75 billion domestically, ranking 15th all-time when adjusted for present ticket costs. “Titanic” is #5, with a budget of NZ$2.4 million. Both films grossed more than NZ$4.7 billion globally, after inflation. With all of the hurdles for theaters and the usual decline for a sequel, the film’s expected take is a win.
On its own, it was never going to be enough to save the extremely underwhelming 2022 for cinemas. It is unknown what a global final take of less than NZ$3.1 billion would entail for Disney, especially in terms of further sequels beyond the already advanced level of “Avatar 3,” given that Disney’s the production and marketing expenditures combined have been estimated to be as high as NZ$1193 million.
Cameron is the one who stated that the film needed to make NZ$3.1 billion at the box office in order for it to be profitable, but this seems excessive given that Disney is ordering premium film rental prices for this film, and even for a 3D film, there are significant home watching incomes that will take place.
